November was crypto’s worst month since April 2011. After the September - October flatlining of the market, I expected an explosive move. My bias was to the upside, but what we saw was a break out below the market structure that had remained intact since February 2018. As of today (Dec 7), the $BTC price sits at new lows for the year below US$3300 (prices last seen in September 2017). The cryptocurrency market capitalization has fallen by half in the last thirty days from US$219 billion on Nov 7 to US$109 billion today.
The speed and severity of price capitulation within this time frame have taken most market participants by surprise, but some had been predicting a break below the US$6000 support eventually before higher highs materialize. Today the $BTC price tested the 200 simple moving weekly average, so it will be interesting to watch what kind of support and bounce we may see from these structural levels in December.
So, what happened?
On the surface, the most significant event was without question the Bitcoin Cash network split and hash war. A full-scale rally into the fork date on November 15 did not materialize, instead the price of $BCH began to decline significantly prior to the fork as the related drama cast a shadow of fear, uncertainty and doubt (FUD) breaking technical support levels across all assets. The reason this particular alt-coin turmoil was so impactful to the broader market is due to its connection with $BTC.
Bitcoin and Bitcoin Cash share the same algorithm and therefore the dedicated mining power worldwide that runs the Bitcoin network can choose which blockchain to process and switch back and forth between Bitcoin and Bitcoin Cash based on profitability, politics or for any reason at all. The players in conflict over the future direction of Bitcoin Cash also command significant market power over the functioning of the $BTC network through owned (or controlled) mining operations and were likely involved in selling large amounts of $BTC to fund their respective $BCH civil war efforts.
The current machinations of egos and whales, while destructive in the short term, are temporary and certainly not reflective of any change to the fundamental value proposition or technological development/investment within the industry. In fact, such events provide valuable testing, understanding and future proofing of Bitcoin’s radical economic model and experiment in distributed governance.
November saw a meaningful uptick in SEC enforcement action globally, and a fresh emphasis on the part of various exchanges to bolster AML/KYC practices. This type of “clean-up” may have had a slight dampening effect initially as unverified market participants are cut off, but improvement in the professionalism, accountability and integrity of trading platforms is clearly bullish for the next wave of adoption and growth in the medium-term.
Another contributing factor to November’s pullback was portfolio liquidation from crypto focused hedge funds closing positions to meet investor redemption requests or shutting firms entirely. A major culling is underway throughout the industry, which is very healthy.
I also note the macro risk-off environment across other asset classes; however, I have seen signs over the past 6 months of inverse correlation between $BTC and U.S. equity markets that support my belief in cryptocurrency as a safe haven when investors panic flee equities en masse (bonds also) and the U.S. Dollar loses its luster.
That turning point (flight from the USD) is not today but could arrive at any moment. When it happens, a very small, tiny amount of capital flows (into cryptocurrencies) will have a large impact. We could easily see 100% moves up in $BTC over the course of days. Certain alt-coins are likely to outperform bitcoin by a factor of 2-10x. Even without further deterioration in other markets, fear and flight-to-safety, crypto markets should begin to trade at higher highs within weeks/months due to internal historical cycles and external infrastructure developments.
Given the likelihood that the next bull cycle will be driven in large part by new capital from the institutional market, conservative portfolios should be weighted towards assets available via platforms/custodians appropriate for trading by such (institutional) entities. A new wave of retail adoption will flow first into those assets with strong marketing and integration among consumer focused products and well-funded initiatives.
Accordingly, I consider the following to be important considerations in portfolio construction for the coming year:
• Liquidity/Global distribution across top exchanges with multiple fiat trading pairs
• Commodity regulatory status
• Money/currency use-case
• Listing on U.S. regulated exchanges
• Robust, distributed development teams
• Substantial marketing effort, traction with other projects and platforms
• Adoption and or support by legacy institutions, venture capital
• Technical support/integration with wallet providers, merchant and payment applications
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