October provided further technical evidence that the crypto markets may have bottomed and a reversal is in the making when the current accumulation phase concludes. Bitcoin volatility trended at historic lows even while equity markets saw increased volatility to the downside.
Volatility and trading volumes across the market began to increase in early November, sparked in part by large capital flows (and gains) into Bitcoin Cash ($BCH). $BCH rose from US$422 on 10/31 to a high of US$628 on 11/6 for a 35% gain in less than one week. A split in the $BCH network is looming for November 15th as a civil war in the bitcoin cash community has resulted in competing factions’ determination to implement different protocols during the scheduled hard fork.
I expect explosive moves and a bull market to return starting at the end of November into December. The Wild West days are almost back! But I remain cautious with respect to timing and watch for technical confirmation, while guarding against large losses should price break strong market structural support below $BTC @ US$6,000.
As of today’s date (Nov 9), the $BTC “higher lows” trend line established since the yearly low in June remains intact. Even though bitcoin is now in its historically bullish season (October – December), a prudent investor would wait for meaningful follow through with volume in recent upward price momentum before deploying additional capital into the market.
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